1 in 5 worldwide has a condition linked to increased severe COVID-19 risk

  • Clark A & al
  • Lancet Glob Health
  • 16 jun. 2020

  • de Liz Scherer
  • Clinical Essentials
El acceso al contenido completo es sólo para profesionales sanitarios registrados. El acceso al contenido completo es sólo para profesionales sanitarios registrados.

Takeaway

  • Roughly 1.7 billion people (22%) worldwide have an underlying condition that is linked to increased risk for severe COVID-19.

Why this matters

Key results

  • ~1.7 billion or 22% persons worldwide have >1 underlying condition increasing severe COVID-19 risk, with an uncertainty interval (UI) of 1.0-2.4 billion.  
    • 0.4 billion (6%) have >2, with a UI of 0.2-0.7 billion.
  • Underlying comorbidity prevalence by age:
    • 10% by age 25 years,
    • 33% by 50 years, and
    • 66% by 70 years.
  • 23% (UI, 15%-29%) of the working population (ages 15-65 years) have >1 comorbidity. 
  • Men were ~2 times likelier than women to carry high risk (all ages
  • Overall, 349 (UI, 186-282) million or 4% (3%-9%) are at high risk for severe COVID-19 and likely to be hospitalized.
  • Although regional variations occur, demographics mostly drive population risk on the African continent and in small island nations.

Study design

  • Modeling analysis assessing global, regional, national estimates of persons at increased risk for severe COVID-19 by age, sex, country (n=188) because of underlying medical conditions.
  • Funding: UK Department for International Development; others.

Limitations

  • Confounding bias potential.